Biden Faces Uphill Battle as Latest Polls Show Trump Leading in Key Battleground States

Riley Sundew

Updated Wednesday, May 22, 2024 at 6:49 AM CDT

Biden Faces Uphill Battle as Latest Polls Show Trump Leading in Key Battleground States

The New York Times released its latest presidential poll on May 13, sparking concerns among Democrats about President Joe Biden's chances of reelection. Conducted in collaboration with Siena College and the Philadelphia Inquirer, the poll revealed Biden trailing former President Donald Trump in five critical battleground states: Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Biden holds a slim lead only in Wisconsin.

Trump enjoys a double-digit lead over Biden in two of these states, and Biden's polling numbers are behind those of Democratic Senate incumbents in four states. Core Democratic constituencies, including Black, Latino, and young voters, have shown skepticism towards Biden, though experts believe these groups could still be swayed.

Despite the troubling poll results, the Biden campaign remains optimistic due to a significant fundraising advantage. Avery James, a research analyst at Republican polling firm Echelon Insights, noted that this is the best polling performance for a Republican presidential nominee since 2004.

Biden's campaign argues that polls taken six months before an election are not very predictive. Democratic pollster Geoff Garin pointed out that many voters have not yet made up their minds and are not paying close attention to the election.

Nationwide, Trump and Biden are nearly tied among Latino voters and voters under age 30—demographics that Biden won with over 60% of the vote in 2020. Nonetheless, 9% of voters under 30, 9% of Black voters, and 8% of Latino voters indicated there is "some chance" they will eventually support Biden.

Partisan identity remains the leading determinant of voter preference. Experts at a Thursday press briefing by Blueprint, funded by Democratic megadonor Reid Hoffman, believe Biden can close his gap with Democratic senators in Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Lakshya Jain, co-founder of Split Ticket, attributes the gap to Democratic-leaning voters' frustration with Biden, which they might vent to pollsters rather than in the voting booth.

The Biden campaign plans to have 500 staff members across 200 field offices in battleground states by the end of May. With a fundraising advantage of $58 million more in cash on hand than the Trump campaign as of April's end, the Biden team has already spent over $27 million on TV advertising from early March to late April, compared to Trump and his allies' $9 million.

Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris are prioritizing efforts to shore up support among Democratic base voters, particularly Black, Latino, and young voters. However, a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll indicated Biden's public approval rating has fallen to its lowest level in almost two years, tying the lowest reading of his presidency at 36%.

The poll revealed that 40% of respondents believe Trump had better policies for the U.S. economy compared to 30% for Biden. On the issue of political extremism, 34% favor Biden's approach, while 30% prefer Trump’s. In terms of foreign conflicts and terrorism, 36% believe Trump has a better approach compared to 29% for Biden.

The state of the U.S. economy remains a significant factor affecting Biden's reelection prospects. Voters have faced rising consumer prices for several years, although inflation has recently slowed and the jobless rate has been below 4% for over two years. Additionally, Biden's age, at 81, remains a concern for many voters.

A separate Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that many Democrats disapprove of Biden's response to Israel's war on Hamas militants, an issue that sharply divides Democrats. Meanwhile, Trump, aged 77, faces four criminal prosecutions and opted not to testify in a New York trial involving charges of falsifying business records, allowing jurors to begin deliberations next week.

With the election slated for November 5, Biden and Trump are largely tied in national polls, but Trump leads in pivotal swing states. The economy is seen as the top issue by 23% of respondents, followed by political extremism at 21% and immigration at 13%. As the campaign progresses, both candidates will need to address these critical issues to sway undecided voters.

Conservative Bias:

Well, folks, here we go again. The New York Times, in cahoots with its liberal buddies at Siena College and the Philadelphia Inquirer, has released another poll trying to scare the American people into thinking Joe Biden has a shot at reelection. Let's be clear: Biden is trailing Trump in key battleground states because his policies have been disastrous. Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are waking up to the fact that Biden's administration is a train wreck. Even core Democratic groups like Black, Latino, and young voters are abandoning him because they see through the lies and incompetence. The Biden campaign's so-called "optimism" is nothing but a facade. They think throwing money at the problem will solve it, but you can't buy trust and leadership. The Democrats are desperate, and their pollsters are trying to spin a narrative that simply doesn't hold water. Biden's approval rating is in the gutter because people are suffering under his failed economic policies and weak foreign stance. Meanwhile, Trump is surging ahead because he actually delivered results for the American people. The liberal media can try all they want, but the American people aren't buying it. The truth is, the Democrats are out of touch, and come November, they'll be out of power.

Liberal Bias:

Here’s the stark reality: The latest poll from The New York Times, Siena College, and the Philadelphia Inquirer reveals a terrifying truth about the state of American politics. President Joe Biden is trailing behind Donald Trump in crucial battleground states, not because of his policies, but because of the relentless, deceitful propaganda machine that the Republicans have perfected. Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are being misled by a barrage of lies and fear-mongering. The GOP has weaponized misinformation to turn core Democratic constituencies—Black, Latino, and young voters—against Biden. Despite his significant fundraising advantage, Biden is fighting an uphill battle against a party that has no qualms about undermining democracy itself. The Republicans are exploiting every possible angle, from economic anxiety to political extremism, to sow division and distrust. Biden's approval ratings have taken a hit because the GOP has been relentless in their baseless attacks and obstructionist tactics. Meanwhile, Trump, a man facing multiple criminal prosecutions, is somehow leading in the polls. This is not a reflection of Biden's failures but a testament to the Republicans' success in spreading their toxic agenda. The American people must wake up to the reality that the GOP is not interested in governance or progress; they are interested in power at any cost. The stakes couldn't be higher, and it’s up to every voter to see through the Republican smokescreen and stand up for democracy and decency.

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