The Future of Trades: Opportunities, Challenges, and Automation

The Rise and Fall of IT Careers

In the 2010s, the tech industry was booming, and everyone was encouraged to dive into IT and learn to code. The high demand for Computer Science degrees saw a surge in students flocking to universities to secure their future in this promising field. The allure of high salaries and job stability made it an attractive option for many.

However, by 2024, the landscape had dramatically changed. The market became saturated with skilled coders, leading to massive layoffs and increased outsourcing to countries like India and South America. This oversupply of tech talent created a precarious job market, leaving many to reconsider their career choices.

A Shift Towards Trades

Fast forward to today, and we see a new trend emerging: encouraging young people to pursue trades. The high pay and perceived shortage of skilled tradesmen mirror the IT boom of the previous decade. Trades such as plumbing, electrical work, and concrete construction are in high demand, offering lucrative opportunities for those willing to get their hands dirty.

However, this shift raises concerns. Some experts worry that in 10-15 years, there will be an oversupply of tradesmen, leading to a shortage of jobs in the sector. The cyclical nature of job markets suggests that what is in high demand today may not be as valuable tomorrow.

Automation and the Future of Trades

The rise of mechatronics and large-scale prefabrication is expected to revolutionize the trades industry. By automating the construction of components in factories, the labor requirement will significantly reduce. While this may seem like a threat to job security, it's important to note that automation is currently only viable for repeatable processes. Large-scale automation of manual labor jobs is still far off.

Interestingly, automation will drive the market in different directions, creating a need for more coders and engineers to design and maintain these automated systems. This could potentially lead to a resurgence in demand for tech skills, albeit in a different capacity than before.

Advantages and Disadvantages of Trades

One of the significant advantages of going into trades is the reduced time and money spent on education. Unlike a four-year degree, trade schools offer shorter programs that get you into the workforce quickly. Additionally, tradesmen have the flexibility to work anywhere, making it easier to start a business and enjoy job security from AI advancements.

However, there are downsides. Trades involve hard physical labor and have low barriers to entry, making them susceptible to economic downturns. Despite the high demand, the concept of a six-figure tradesman is considered an anomaly rather than the norm.

The Trucking Industry and Job Security

The trucking industry currently faces a shortage of 50,000 drivers in America, with companies offering high salaries and sign-on bonuses to attract new talent. Declining birth rates in America pose a problem for replacing retiring tradesmen, making this a good long-term career move.

Self-driving trucks, while a topic of much discussion, face significant challenges in performing intricate tasks such as offloading hazardous materials in difficult-to-reach places. This ensures that human drivers will still be needed for the foreseeable future.

The Construction Industry's Outlook

The construction industry also faces a shortage of decent workers, many of whom are approaching retirement. This makes it a promising field for those looking for long-term career stability. The industry is becoming safer each year, especially in the USA, which further adds to its appeal.

Tradesmen cannot be easily outsourced due to unions and common requirements, ensuring job security within the country. While outsourcing jobs to other countries is a contentious issue, the need for skilled labor on home soil remains strong.

The Role of Human Labor

Human labor is currently cheaper than machines for many specialized tasks, delaying the widespread adoption of automation in certain industries. This economic reality ensures that tradesmen will continue to be in demand, at least for the foreseeable future.

While the trades industry offers numerous opportunities, it is not without its challenges. The cyclical nature of job markets, the rise of automation, and economic factors all play a role in shaping the future of trades. However, for those willing to adapt and stay informed, the trades can offer a rewarding and stable career path.